Top 3 Wins:

1. Median Home Prices Holding Steady:
   • Santa Barbara County: The median home price in South Santa Barbara County remained stable at $1,805,000 as of Q2 2024. This reflects a slight increase from $1,765,000 in Q2 2023, showing resilience in property values despite market fluctuations.
   • Montecito: Montecito’s median home price has surpassed $7 million in mid-2024, indicating continued strength in the high-end market.
   • Mesa Area: The average home price in the Mesa area for 2024 year-to-date is around $2.6 million, showing consistent demand and price stability in this desirable coastal neighborhood.
2. Increased Inventory Levels:
   • The months of supply for Santa Barbara County increased to 3.03 months as of July 2024, up from 2.20 months in the same period in 2023. This increase suggests a healthier balance between supply and demand compared to previous years.
3. Sustained High-End Market Sales:
   • Despite a decrease in the number of transactions, the price per transaction in Montecito remains high. The $10 million+ category continues to maintain significant dollar volumes, showing that the market for ultra-luxury properties is still active, albeit with fewer transactions.

Top 3 Losses:

1. Decreased Transaction Volume:
   • Santa Barbara County: The number of single-family homes sold in July 2024 was 58, one of the lowest monthly figures in the past five years, indicating a slowdown in market activity.
   • Montecito: Transactions for homes priced over $5 million have decreased, with only six such sales recorded in July 2024, down from 19 in June 2024.
   • Mesa Area: The total number of transactions year-to-date in the Mesa area is down by 10% compared to 2023, reflecting reduced buyer activity.
2. Softening in Sales Price to List Price Ratio:
   • Santa Barbara County: The sales price to list price ratio has decreased to 97.73% in July 2024, compared to higher ratios in previous years. This suggests that properties are now selling slightly below their initial asking prices, reflecting a softening market.
3. High-End Market Slowdown:
   • Montecito: The ultra-high-end market (homes priced above $10 million) has seen a reduction in transaction volume in 2024. Fewer high-end sales are occurring, which could indicate a cautious approach from ultra-high-net-worth buyers.

Top 3 Worrying Trends:

1. Rising Inventory Levels:
   • Santa Barbara County: Inventory levels have increased to over 3 months of supply in July 2024, which could indicate potential challenges if supply continues to outpace demand.
2. Extended Days on Market:
   • Montecito: Homes in the high-end market are taking longer to sell, with days on market increasing compared to the rapid sales seen in 2021 and 2022. This could signal a decrease in buyer urgency at these price points.
3. Reduced Transaction Volume Across the Board:
   • Santa Barbara County: The overall number of transactions has decreased across various price segments, reflecting a broad market slowdown. This trend could impact overall market liquidity and seller confidence moving forward.

This analysis provides a clear and data-driven overview of the current state of the Santa Barbara and Montecito real estate markets, focusing on the top wins, losses, and concerning trends based on current data.

Analysis for Luxury Homeowners with $3M+ Properties in Santa Barbara, Mesa, Montecito, & Hope Ranch

Santa Barbara:

• Market Stability: For homeowners with properties valued at $3M+, the Santa Barbara market has shown stability in pricing. The median price in South Santa Barbara County is holding steady at $1,805,000, which suggests that homes in the $3M+ range are likely maintaining or slightly increasing in value. However, there is a growing inventory with a 3.03-month supply, indicating that while prices are stable, the market is becoming more competitive, and sellers may need to adjust expectations regarding time on market.
• Buyer Interest: There is sustained buyer interest in Santa Barbara, particularly for properties that offer unique features such as ocean views, large lots, or proximity to downtown. Homes in the $3M+ range are particularly appealing to out-of-state buyers who are attracted to Santa Barbara’s lifestyle, but these buyers are increasingly price-sensitive, reflecting broader economic caution.

Mesa:

• Pricing Trends: The Mesa area, with an average home price of approximately $2.6M in 2024, shows that properties in the $3M+ range are at the upper end of the market. While the number of transactions has decreased by 10% year-to-date, prices have remained relatively stable. This suggests that while the market is softer, there is still demand for premium properties, particularly those with ocean views or modern amenities.
• Market Dynamics: Homes in the $3M+ range in the Mesa are attracting buyers looking for coastal living within close proximity to Santa Barbara’s amenities. However, the extended days on market and increased inventory levels indicate that sellers may need to be more flexible with pricing or offer incentives to attract buyers in a more competitive environment.